john hawks weblog

paleoanthropology, genetics and evolution

hunter-gatherers

  • Developing the sharing sense

    Mon, 2011-03-21 01:11 -- John Hawks

    Following on after yesterday's post about hunter-gatherer population structure, I ended with the proposal that cooperation may be a "cognitive technology" in the same way suggested for numbers ("Number as cognitive technology").

    The technology perspective attracts me. It seems a productive way to examine the interaction between innate and extrinsic factors leading to human behaviors. We learn about numbers. Without a development of the brain within a cultural setting with widespread counting and training in number use, people don't develop the habits of mind that allow rapid comparison of cardinal values. They can still operate on sets of objects and compare their quantities, but they are missing a shorthand, a symbolic shortcut, that comes with learning and practice. Numerical concepts, invented and repeatedly used by human societies, give learners access to this symbolic method of problem-solving.

    Cooperation and other prosocial behaviors are similar in some respects. Whether you share with another person or not in a particular concept depends on the rules about sharing that you learned as a member of your society. What's interesting is that these rules change with age in various ways. So I went looking in the developmental psychology literature for some data about how kids share. My notes here are just a start -- and I'm pretty sure they're rough to read near the end -- but I found it interesting how the data seem to illuminate the issue of cooperation in the archaeological record.

    Toddlers

    Toddlers can, in some circumstances, exhibit a surprising degree of understanding about the intentions of others. They can also be surprisingly helpful -- that is, they can see when another individual wants something, and can actively help that other person to get it. A paper last fall by Kristen Dunfield and colleagues [1] gives a nice review of this kind of helping behavior in toddlers aged 18 and 24 months.

    Replicating previous work by Warneken and Tomasello (2006, 2007), we found that by 18 months, infants are beginning to identify the situations in which helping behavior is required; that is, they will aid instrumentally by retrieving an item that is out of a person’s reach, thus fulfilling another’s unmet goal. Further, the present study found a similar frequency of helping behavior to Warneken and Tomasello (2006), even though in the current study participants only received one experimental helping trial as opposed to the three trials they received in the previous paradigm. In light of previous studies, helping behavior may also be seen as young as 14 months, though the contexts in which it occurs are less flexible, owing perhaps to an emerging understanding of goal-directed activities (Warneken & Tomasello, 2007), recognition of the means by which certain unmet goals can be fulfilled, and the physical ability to mediate the completion of the goal.

    However, as I well remember from my own toddlers, the "prosocial" characteristics of infants can be temperamental, to say the least. Dunsfield and colleagues considered 18 and 24-month-olds, finding substantial heterogeneity among individuals in the kind of helping or sharing behavior they exhibited.

    While acknowledging the dangers of arguing from a null effect, it is the case that although the majority of the participants engaged in at least some prosocial behavior, there were no correlations between the various prosocial behaviors. Further, the most common pattern of response was to engage in only one type of prosocial behavior (helping or sharing). Although the tendency to engage in prosocial behavior in general tended to increase across our two timepoints, the increase was not the result of systematic development within or between the various subtypes of prosocial behavior. Thus, we have no evidence in the present study for “across the board” prosocial behavior within individuals in these two age groups. With future research that explores the consistency both within and between the multiple specific types of behavior, and that considers enduring behavior over time in a longitudinal manner (Eisenberg et al., 1999), it may be the case that helping, comforting, and sharing do not cluster together within an individual’s repertoire and perhaps should not be grouped together as one general category of unified behavior in infancy.

    A natural question is, what does it take to manage any kind of sharing at all among children this young? By this age most children have experienced thousands of times when an adult or another caregiver has performed the opposite role, giving the child what she cannot reach herself. This long history of positive exemplars for sharing and cooperative behavior nevertheless leaves substantial variation among children in how they actually behave in a similar context.

    The first article by Warneken and Tomasello cited above [2] compared human children with chimpanzee juveniles of a similar age. They showed that the human children did show these prosocial tendencies by 18 months, but that so do chimpanzees -- at least to a certain extent. The chimpanzee juveniles handled the most indexical of the tasks relatively well -- the case where a person is reaching for something but needs help to reach it. Other tasks didn't bring out the cooperative nature in chimpanzee juveniles:

    However, the chimpanzees did not help the human reliably in the other types of tasks—that is, in those involving physical obstacles, wrong results, or wrong means. In a follow-up study, we gave them two additional tasks of these types—designed to make the human's problem especially salient and with more time for a response—and they still did not help in these tasks (14). Presumably, when someone is reaching with an outstretched arm toward an object, the goal is in principle easier to understand and the kind of intervention follows straightforwardly. This could explain why out-of-reach tasks (in contrast to the other scenarios) elicited more helping by children and the only instances of helping by chimpanzees. Children and chimpanzees are both willing to help, but they appear to differ in their ability to interpret the other's need for help in different situations.

    This goes some distance toward explaining what children need to make them potential helpers. They need some way of figuring out the goal of the person who needs help, and they need to have no goal of their own that directly conflicts. Before Warneken and Tomasello's work, chimpanzee juveniles had not shown signs of such prosocial behaviors in other experimental contexts. Those authors attribute the difference to food: Most chimpanzee experiments had involved food treats, attempting to get individuals to share food with each other. The chimpanzee's own desire for the food may directly interfere with the goals of other individuals -- a conflict that is hardly likely to lead to sharing, even in human toddlers.

    There is little sense in calling the chimpanzee behavioral pattern "rudimentary", as psychologists sometimes do. The human pattern here is rudimentary compared to the extent of helping and sharing that occur later in childhood. The human children in this context seem to have an ability to diagnose the intentions of another individual more than do the chimpanzees. They also seem to have more patience for helping, in some sense. Warneken and Tomasello returned to the topic in a 2009 review [3] that puts forward the situation with respect to sharing, helping, and information transfer. They note that human language depends on cooperation in a way that chimpanzee vocalizations do not. It may not be coincidental that language is learned across the same ages as cooperative behaviors.

    Preschool-aged children

    Olson and Spelke [4] reported on a slightly more intricate study with 3.5-year-old children. They assessed sharing behavior in which children had to divide a pool of items among a number of recipients. These potential recipients sometimes included both relatives and strangers. In other instances, the potential recipients varied in terms of whether they had interacted with the children by sharing with them. Olson and Spelke intended to find whether children of this age would engage in direct and indirect reciprocity, and whether they would skew their distribution of the resource toward relatives as opposed to strangers.

    What they found is that kids of this age typically divy things up fairly:

    Children may have distributed resources equally on the four-resource trials for either of two reasons. First, it is possible that children will resort to equal sharing whenever resources are plentiful and will favor family, friends, reciprocators, and generous others only under conditions of scarcity. Such a possibility is consistent with the finding that social conflicts among older children and adults arise primarily when resources are limited ([Jackson, 1993] and [Sherif et al., 1961]). Alternatively, the equality response may be driven by a predisposition to distribute resources in a one-to-one correspondence with recipients whenever such a distribution is possible. That predisposition, in turn, could arise either spontaneously or through the internalization of an explicit rule children are taught by parents and other adults.

    As soon as they can manage matching objects with people, they are parceling out things one to a person. That's obviously an integral part of most children's experience -- everything from passing out parts in a game, to passing out food at dinner. So the behavior itself is highly reinforced if not explicitly taught, and it may well be explicitly taught to most children.

    The children in Olson and Spelke's trials also tended to share more with people who had previously been generous in the past, either directly or indirectly to the child. By rewarding past generosity, the children were fulfilling their end of a reciprocity arrangement. This seems pretty relevant to the dynamics in ancient human groups; if a 3-year-old can manage the basics of reciprocity, it may not have taken much to push people into a stable hunting and gathering economy, which is based on reciprocity.

    School-age children

    Here's what interested me the most. Kids at 3.5 years already get the idea of sharing equally and fairly. So you might think this would be deeply ingrained in older children. But instead what we see is that older children start to reason more and more like adults, which ironically makes them share less evenly. They just get more clever about how to rationalize their choice to be unfair.

    For example, a nice study by Gummerum and colleagues [5] compared students age 9 to age 17 for their performance in the "dictator game."

    The "dictator game" is an experimental model that has been repeatedly employed in adults to study the themes of cooperation and altruism. An individual is given control over how to divide a single sum between herself and another anonymous person. The individual can choose any division down all for himself and zero for the anonymous player.

    Gummerum and colleagues added a twist, making individuals work in groups of three to decide on their offers. The offers then reflected not only the preferences of individuals going into the study but also their moral reasoning with each other after discussing the offers in small groups. This yielded an interesting, almost ethnographic picture of how the children came to make their decisions about appropriate offers.

    They found that the offers made by groups were strongly influenced by the level of moral reasoning employed by group members. When a student who favored a low offer was arguing at a higher level of sophistication, the group was more likely to adopt a low offer. And vice-versa -- when the clever student was arguing for a more equitable offer at a higher level, the group was more likely to give more. Girls gave higher offers than boys in the experiment as well.

    In a game like this, the sharing and reciprocity aspects of prosocial behavior are transformed into moral questions. No punishment befalls students who choose to make low offers in the dictator game; yet there is the consideration of self-regard. And others have heard the arguments that a student makes, affecting her reputation. Moral reasoning is, in other words, public.

    Concluding thoughts

    What I find so interesting about comparing children of different ages, is not about cooperation but instead about how the rules are shifted to higher levels of description. Sharing and reciprocity are quite simple, and children can manage them young, although irregularly. Kids can learn about sharing and helping in a rather unsophisticated way, and their performance reflects very simple expectations. Equal division, turn-taking, and punishment of defectors are all integral parts of early childhood.

    Obviously, any humans living in foraging societies in the recent past have grappled similarly with the moral aspects of cooperation and altruism. But that moral reasoning comes at an age far past when children are taught about the importance of fairness, sharing and helping. The kind of dynamic that concerns many anthropologists -- how do foraging peoples maintain the rules that underlie reciprocity and altruistic behavior -- is simply at a different level than the dynamic that actually inculcates cooperation. Yet with children who learn systematically to help and cooperate, such behaviors have a much higher chance of existing stably, even in small societies. If there is any cognitive invention that a human society would not want to lose, I think some conception of fairness may be it.


    References

  • Hunter-gatherer kinship and band composition

    Sun, 2011-03-20 00:18 -- John Hawks

    Kim Hill and colleagues described in last week's Science a study of kinship within bands of hunter-gatherers known from ethnographic research [1]. They couched their study to dispute the idea that most of the members of hunter-gatherer bands are kin.

    Why? Because the idea that hunter-gatherers live in bands composed mainly of close kin has been a very common answer to the question, "Why do humans cooperate?"

    Traditionally, anthropologists have suggested that hunter-gatherer co-residence is almost entirely based on kinship [e.g., (15, 16)], and evolutionary psychologists have embraced this idea in order to develop “mismatch hypotheses” about cooperation among non-kin in modern societies (17). Evolutionary researchers have also argued both that female philopatry and maternal grandmother provisioning is ancestral (5) and that male philopatry, typical of other African hominoids (18, 19) and leading to adult male provisioning (8), is the ancestral human pattern. If either of these is correct, and if foraging bands are mainly collections of close kin, inclusive fitness gains might be the primary motivator of ancestral human cooperation.

    True, many evolutionary psychologists have adopted this view with gusto: Hunter-gatherers cooperate because they live in small bands with their kin. But as many have realized, actual bands of hunter-gatherers pretty quickly show that this isn't true. Either men or women generally move when they marry, so bands have close relatives in them, but they also have unrelated individuals. In practice people often move with a sibling, or their adult parents may come to live with them as well (both practices described by Hill and colleagues).

    The net effect of residence changes is to reduce the levels of inbreeding within bands, and also reduce the genetic variation among bands. Some evolutionary psychologists occupy themselves with group selection precisely because the relevant level of cooperation in hunter-gatherers is the band, and bands include many people who are distantly if at all related. But (as Hill and colleagues also note) the high rates of intermarriage among bands greatly reduces the strength of group selection possible among them.

    I think the paper sets up a straw man when it claims that the "traditional view" in anthropology is that bands are made up of kin. That's certainly not the view I learned. Their "traditional" citations are Elmer Service and June Helm, writing in the 1960's, and I don't doubt that they and others have argued for kin-structured co-residence. My understanding of "kin-structured" was never that bands were made up of close kin, but instead that residence was determined by kinship pattern. Exogamy is driven by the incest taboo, for example. Whether men or women typically change residence to marry depends on other kinship rules. Humans recognize kin, and their movements are not incidental to this, resulting in a kin-structured society. Some rules force people to live in different groups from their close kin, not the same groups.

    At any rate, Hill and colleagues confirm that the groups in their dataset do not have bands composed mainly of close kin. They suggest that we need a new theory of human social evolution to explain the emergence of cooperative behaviors:

    The hunter-gatherer social structure we describe has important implications for theories about the evolution of cooperation and cultural capacity. First, bands are mainly composed of individuals either distantly related by kinship and/or marriage or unrelated altogether. In our sample of 32 societies, primary kin generally make up less than 10% of a residential band. For example, in the Ache we estimate the mean genetic coefficient of relatedness (Hamilton’s r) between adults in 58 precontact bands to be only 0.054 (n = 19,634 dyads, SE = 0.0001). This agrees with Ache informants who reported that during the precontact period they often lived with people described as “friends, not relatives.” The Ju/’hoansi results in Fig. 2 suggest that mean relatedness in other groups is not too different from the Ache. Thus, we cannot necessarily assume that cognitive features such as inequality aversion and enhanced prosocial emotions evolved in ancestral environments composed mainly of close kin. Given the constant flow of individuals between groups, genetic group selection at the level of the band also seems improbable. Instead, cultural group selection (27) may lead to the spread of cooperative institutions within ethnic groups, which might then create a context favoring the genetic evolution of prosocial cognitive mechanisms through individual-level selection.

    I have two reactions. The paper is missing a null model. It is true that the hunter-gatherers are much less related to each other within a band than would be predicted if they were choosing to live near close kin. But are they more related to each other than would be the case if they moved randomly? What if individuals move around without consideration of kinship at all, according to a simple distance function? If individuals behave as they would without any knowledge of kinship, it's clear that our explanation for cooperation needs to work at the individual level. Cultural group selection may help explain the persistence of institutions and rules, but I think it's insufficient to explain the evolution of people who can form institutions and rules.

    My second reaction is that humans are self-interested. In my experience, children learn to share when they can grasp the concept of reciprocity. Let me suggest that, like numbers, cooperation may be a cognitive technology in humans. We may have many biological changes that facilitate cooperation -- for example, I would look for human-specific changes to oxytocin regulation. But those changes may be mostly tuning a system to facilitate prosocial behavior (and reduce aggression). They don't explain the occurrence of specific prosocial behaviors, because those behaviors themselves did not evolve. They were invented.


    References

  • Population structure within Africa: has "modern human origins" become a non sequitur?

    Tue, 2011-03-15 16:33 -- John Hawks

    When I wrote about the Denisova genome late last year, I claimed that "A large-scale reorganization of the science of human origins is upon us."

    I'm glad I had the sense to write that. A lot of people have pointed back to that quote over the last few months. Still, I know that the full implications of the Denisova and Neandertal genomes haven't really sunk in. "Large-scale reorganization" takes time.

    A new paper by Brenna Henn and colleagues in PNAS [1] shows how the shifting landscape has caught many geneticists off their footing. Submitted before the Denisova genome, but long after the Neandertal, the paper is titled, "Hunter-gatherer genomic diversity suggests a southern African origin for modern humans". In today's landscape, with only one instance of the word "Neanderthal" in the paper, the conclusions are obviously incomplete.

    The "southern African origins" conclusion of the paper comes out of a simple analysis that assumes that the best-fit maximum for genetic diversity (as assessed by linkage) is the most likely point of origin of the population. That would be true if the African population emerged by a series of founder effects from a single small ancestral population -- the "serial founder effect" model that I have criticized here before. But of course in 2011, we know that model is false, because it is predicated on a lack of ancient mixture with Neandertals or other populations. If the serial founder model can't work outside Africa, it certainly can't work inside Africa, where populations were larger and regionally diversified during by the beginning of the Late Pleistocene. Without that false assumption, the "southern African origin" evaporates. The primary observation, a cline of linkage disequilibrium within sub-Saharan Africa, can be explained with reference to mixture of populations without assuming an origin and expansion from one geographic location.

    I don't want to criticize overmuch. Many ongoing research projects are casualties of our new knowledge of ancient genomics, and we'll see more papers like this before the fallout has settled. Simplistic founder models, acceptable only a year ago when these projects were conceived, are now unquestionably false. Ancient population mixture is the order of the day, and we don't have any simple, plug-in-the-data models to apply to data like these.

    Instead, I want to consider the power of the data in this article to answer some fundamental questions about African population history. Henn and colleagues report on SNP genotyping of several Bushman groups from southern Africa and Sandawe and Hadza people from eastern Africa. These data are on the 550k SNP platform that was used by 23andMe before the recent increase to 1M SNPs. That means the data are comparable to many other studies. They are not entirely comparable with other samples of African genetic variation, and the authors cut the total number of SNPs down to the 55,000 that overlap among all the genotyping platforms used in their analysis. For this reason, the paper presents a genome-wide set of 55,000 SNPs across many African populations.

    It's far from the perfect sample. I expect we'll be able to do much more with the full 550k dataset from the hunter-gatherer populations. The data have been made publicly available for download, and here we're already starting to investigate them.

    Within the current paper there is a very useful analysis of the broader dataset using the ADMIXTURE software. ADMIXTURE assumes that the current samples represent a mixture of ancient populations that were more distinct than today's. I went through this algorithm with my students in class Wednesday and Friday, which I'm sure was an intimidating process to most of them. The math is not too conceptually daunting; it's just hard to conceptualize how all the possible interactions relate to gene frequencies when you are assuming more than a few putative ancestral populations. Razib Khan gives an impressive step-by-step guide to performing an ADMIXTURE analysis, including some of these samples.

    I'm not in love with this analytical method -- there's no reality check on its assumptions. But its output can be informative about many aspects of population structure. Here are some first approximations:

    1. The genetic diversification of African populations was once much greater than today. Razib Khan points out the homogenizing effect that agricultural populations have had on the African continent, particularly during and after the Bantu expansion. I think the current data suggest that earlier processes involving LSA hunter-gatherers also tended to homogenize populations.

    For example, when eight initial clusters are assumed, the ADMIXTURE analysis constructs them in a way that most of the ancestors of today's Bushmen were in a population with a high degree of genetic divergence from the other seven ancestral populations. The FST between the Bushman ancestral population and others ranges from 0.1 (for forest pygmies) to a high of 0.25 (from Europeans). That estimate is nearly double the equivalent statistic in today's populations.

    Again, we don't have to believe the assumptions underlying the ADMIXTURE algorithm, but it does highlight the basic partitioning of diversity in the African population. Today there is high diversity within African population samples, and some of that diversity can be traced back to populations of 100,000 years ago or more. Some of the diversity that once existed among these populations has now been spread within them instead. The populations got genetically closer over time.

    A model of successive population expansions, bringing ancient populations genetically closer and closer together, is also what we may see in other places. As we have learned more about the mtDNA of ancient Europeans, it has become clear that successive expansions and migrations of people into Europe have radically reshaped the gene pool.

    2. Click languages have no genealogical unity. Over the years, many linguists and anthropologists have proposed that Hadza, Sandawe, and Bushmen are closely related to each other, despite their geographic distance, because they all speak languages that use click sounds. No historical linguist has ever successfully demonstrated a system of sound changes or detailed correspondences among these languages, but people promoting the hypothesis seem immune to these kinds of facts.

    The genetics show a very clear and ancient differentiation of these hunter-gatherer peoples. In the ADMIXTURE analysis, some of the largest genetic distances are among these peoples. By itself, that may not be surprising; these are the populations that have most evaded the homogenization that followed the spread of farming. The Hadza themselves are strikingly distinctive, and their genetics may reflect a history of small population size during the last several hundred years. The potential for genetic drift in this population was very high. Still, the genetic relations are just the opposite that would be expected if speakers of these click languages had shared a common origin.

    Seems to me that this could have been the lede of the paper, if it had been written differently. A bit more exploration of the hunter-gatherer data (probably incorporating some haplotype-level analysis to give a better estimate of the ages of events) would demonstrate this point very well.

    3. By the time we find "modern" humans in West Asia, the African population had long since diversified into regional populations. This is not news; the mtDNA evidence has suggested for several years that southern Africa and the remainder of sub-Saharan Africa were already regionally differentiated before 120,000 years ago. There have also been hints of this diversification from whole-genome evidence (including the supplement of the Neandertal genome paper last year). Here we have a clear indication that the regionality extends to every African hunter-gatherer population.

    4. Hunter-gatherers have relatively little evidence for recent positive selection. The supplementary data of the current paper includes a short discussion of selection and a list of candidate loci in the hunter-gatherer samples. There is relatively little overlap in candidate regions for selection among these samples. Different genes have been selected in different populations, and not all that many of them. This is not surprising if the selection is relatively new -- the last 20,000 years or maybe more, given the distances and amount of historical population structure estimated for the data. It's also consistent with the demography of these populations. It will be interesting to check, but I would speculate that the signature of selection will on average appear older in these samples than in populations that have historically been agriculturalists.

    5. Where's the Aterian? North Africa is relatively depauperate in variation in the large combined dataset. That may stem mostly from Holocene events, including the spread of West Asian populations across North Africa. But the low variation there doesn't readily fit the idea that an out-of-Africa dispersal of genes came from a North African source. I don't think the observations in the paper (centered around linkage disequilibrium with a very low SNP count) are enough to settle anything about this question, but I'd be nervous if I were busy trying to make the Aterian seem important to the modern human origins issue.

    Bottom line

    As interesting as these assertions look, I don't think that a lot of African prehistory is about to be rewritten. Obviously, geneticists need to get serious about reading some African archaeology. We already know that African regional populations were large and diverse during the Middle Stone Age, and that's a very good fit to the kind of genetic diversity we are seeing in these samples.

    The barrier is Holocene population history. Agricultural populations grew, spread, mixed with and absorbed hunter-gatherers, and what we left are the shattered remnants of ancient African population structure. Linkage may be the most powerful way we have to consider historical hypotheses using these SNP data, but if we're going to rely on it we have to control for recent demography and selection.

    And of course, it will be interesting to see a model that can integrate both Neandertal-African and within-African population histories. I don't really have a bang-up finish for this post, because there is immediately more work to be done with these data.


    References

  • A Snowdrift game version of hunting

    Fri, 2009-06-05 23:39 -- John Hawks

    I want to run through some examples of how we can apply game theory to consider hunting decisions in human groups. First, I describe a simple Snowdrift model applied to hunting. This is part 2 of a series, part 1 introduces the topic of the Snowdrift game.

    A reader sent along a story after reading the first post:

    In reading your snowdrift blog post, I was reminded of an experiment that does not require game theory to understand. You may have heard of it. Two pigs are in a pen. One is dominant. To get food one of them presses a bar, but the food is dispensed at the other side of the pen. If the subdominant pig presses the bar, it gets no reward, as the dominant pig hogs the food, eating it all. The result is that the dominant pig presses the bar while the subdominant pig waits at the food trough. Then the dominant pig rushes over to the trough to push the subdominant pig aside. Both pigs get fed, but the dominant pig does all the work

    It's a great example of asymmetrical rewards. I'll get to those in the next few posts on this topic, because the asymmetries are very important to understanding dynamics in hunter-gatherers. But first, we have to describe the simple symmetrical case, including the algebra defining the evolutionarily stable equilibrium between the two simple strategies.

    Suppose we have two hunters, who will share whatever game either of them kills. A man may choose on a given day to hunt. By hunting, he suffers a cost c and brings back a large fixed benefit b for each man. The two men may both choose to hunt on the same day, resulting in the same benefit b but a lowered cost c∕2 for each man. The two men decide whether to hunt simultaneously and without conferring — that is, there is no information transfer between them that would affect their decisions.

    Here is the payoff matrix of the game for player 1 (choices on left) given the strategy selected by player 2 (on top):

    hunt no hunt
    hunt b - c∕2 b - c
    no hunt b 0

    Given the existence of the two strategies, “hunt” and “no hunt,” the ESS is the ratio at which the two strategies have equal expected returns. If individuals select a strategy and do not vary, the ESS represents the frequency of these variants in the population. If in contrast, individuals can choose to adopt either strategy, then the ESS also will be the optimal proportion of the two strategies in one individual’s repertoire. The two strategies will yield equal payoffs when the ESS satisfies the following equation, where p represents the proportion of “hunt” and 1 - p the proportion of “no hunt”:

    p(b- c∕2)+ (1- p)(b - c) = pb
    (1)

    …which simplifies to p = 2(b - c)(2b - c). That expression is positive where b > c, and approaches unity where c is very small relative to b. If in contrast b c then the scenario is the Prisoner’s Dilemma, where the only ESS is a pure “no hunt” strategy.

    Let’s also look at a slightly different case. As above, each man’s return from hunting will be b regardless of whether one man or both choose to hunt. But in the payoff matrix below, the cost of hunting is also the same whether one man or both choose to hunt. So there is no reduction in the cost of hunting if both men do it.

    hunt no hunt
    hunt b - c b - c
    no hunt b 0

    Now, in this case, the ESS satisfies the equation:

    p(b- c)+ (1- p)(b - c) = pb
    (2)

    Again, p is the frequency of the “hunt” strategy. This simplifies to p = (b-c)∕b, which again yields the Prisoner’s Dilemma when b < c.

    OK, that’s the simple Snowdrift game model, described in the language of hunting instead of winter car accidents. It is quite simplistic in many ways. We might expect real hunters to have successes and costs that vary as stochastic functions of the environment. A real hunter must decide whether to hunt based not only on the odds his companion will hunt, but also upon some appraisal of the companion’s likelihood of success. Men in hunting societies are not paired up by the buddy system, but instead make their decisions about hunting in the context of a larger group’s activities.

    Maybe most confusing, there are two possible kinds of currency in which benefits and costs may be expressed. A benefit from hunting may be most naturally measured in calories. If we average hunting returns across many episodes, then our result would be mean calories per day, or per hour of effort. Likewise, it might seem natural to discuss costs in terms of calories, as we might consider the cost of locomotion or cost of transport associated with foraging.

    But the only currency that matters to evolution is fitness. We cannot assume that maximizing caloric returns will maximize fitness. Transport and locomotor costs may be minor compared to the mortality risk from predation when foraging far from camp. The caloric benefits from hunting matter more to a starving child than to a satiated adult.

    So the measures of costs and benefits that define the ESS should be expressed in terms of fitness. That’s a problem, because fitness outcomes are a lot harder to measure than caloric returns. To figure out caloric expenditure and returns, you can measure oxygen consumption, work out distances, and weigh meat. To measure fitness, you have to record lifetime reproduction. To assess the relationship between caloric returns and fitness, you need a lifetime of caloric returns.

    So far, hunter-gatherer demographic data and hunting returns are both known from a small number of transverse studies. Longitudinal data on hunter-gatherer demography are limited, and mostly known by retrospective methods — that is, informants share their knowledge about the history of their groups. The fitness effects of a single individual’s hunting effort over time are not known.

    If fitness outcomes are hard for the scientist to measure, they are equally hard for a social actor to predict. Even intelligent actors like humans know little about the effects of their actions upon their future reproduction. Men sometimes do poorly with information directly relevant to fitness, like “Is the child mine?” That’s not to say that men may not follow highly sophisticated strategies to allocate hunting effort. But we should develop explanations that do not assume that a man knows the fitness benefits and costs of his choices.

    Next: Life history and asymmetrical strategies

  • Snowdrift games, cooperation, and "tragedy of the commune"

    Tue, 2009-06-02 23:27 -- John Hawks

    It’s the second day of June, which means it’s a good time to consider snowdrifts. OK, maybe not – but at least we’re far enough from winter now that the thought of snowdrifts out the window isn’t enough to give me a chill.

    The Snowdrift Game is a theoretical model of cooperation within the context of game theory. I gave a short introduction to game theory a couple of years ago, focusing on the games of Chicken and the Prisoner’s Dilemma. There are really only two formal varieties of two-player games involving cooperation or defection in the absence of information transfer. When defection is always the optimal strategy, it’s the Prisoner’s Dilemma. When a mixed strategy of cooperation and defection is optimal, it’s Chicken.

    But there are other names for this game. I’m not sure why, exactly—I suppose it’s because teenage boys in dragsters don’t appeal to everybody. One familiar name is the Hawk-Dove game. An individual can adopt two strategies: either attack and fight for a resource, or share equally and retreat when attacked. In the game, fighting carries a high cost (like wrecking your car into somebody) so a mixed strategy is optimal. When hawks are common, it’s better to be a dove and avoid fighting. When doves are common, it’s better to be a hawk because you always win.

    A third name for this game is Snowdrift. Imagine you’re riding in a car that becomes stuck in a snowdrift. You and a fellow passenger share the same interest: you both want the snowdrift to be removed. But who’s going to get out and shovel? It might seem fair just to get out and shovel the snow together—in other words, to cooperate. But what if the other passenger just sits there and refuses to help? If the cost of shoveling is low compared to the benefit of getting out of the drift, it will be in your interest to shovel by yourself. Sure, the other passenger is a freeloader who shares the benefit undeservedly, but so what? If the cost of shoveling was too high for you to bear, you’d have refused to do it, letting both of you freeze there. That would be the Prisoner’s Dilemma. But if the cost of shoveling is low compared to the costs of doing nothing, then a mixed strategy will be optimal. As long as freeloaders aren’t too common, that strategy will pay off. So a population engaged in the Snowdrift game will come to a mixed proportion of shovelers and freeloaders.

    Doebeli et al. (2004) considered the Snowdrift game as a model for the evolution of cooperation. A mixed strategy of cooperation and defection can emerge under a Snowdrift game system of payoffs, which makes it very different from the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Remember that in the Prisoner’s Dilemma, defection always generates a higher payoff than cooperation, regardless of the opponent’s strategy. So stable cooperation can only evolve under a Prisoner’s Dilemma system of payoffs if some kind of information transfer is possible. One example is the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma, in which two players encounter each other repeatedly. In this circumstance, one player can punish defection, leading to conditional strategies — the most famous of which is “tit for tat” — that yield a positive payoff for cooperation. It is worth pointing out that the cumulative payoffs under “tit for tat” or other conditional strategies come to approximate the payoffs of the Snowdrift game. The transfer of information changes one payoff structure into another.

    Here, we have unveiled a different paradox of cooperation, which could be termed the ”tragedy of the commune”: In a cooperative system, in which every individual contributes to a common good and benefits from its own investment, selection does not always generate the evolution of uniform and intermediate investment levels but may instead lead to an asymmetric stable state, in which some individuals make high levels of cooperative investment and others invest little or nothing.

    In practice, it is often difficult to determine the payoffs in social interactions and hence to distinguish prisoner’s dilemma and snowdrift interactions [a phage system marks a rare exception, but interestingly, selection turns the prisoner’s dilemma into a snowdrift game (24)]. Nevertheless, the mere existence of high- and low-investing individuals has often been taken as prima facie evidence that the interaction is governed by a prisoner’s dilemma, with some additional mechanism, such as reciprocity, responsible for the co-existence of altruists and nonaltruists. The tragedy of the commune, however, provides a quite different and, in many ways, simpler explanation for the coexistence of high- and low-investing individuals, which potentially applies to a wide range of cooperative and communal enterprises in biological systems (Doebeli et al. 2004:861–862).

    How is this relevant to paleoanthropology? The last paragraph of the paper suggests one way:

    In behavioral ecology, classical examples of cooperation include collective hunting and territory defense in lions (28), predator inspection in sticklebacks (29), and alarm calls in meerkats (30). In theoretical discussions of these examples, the existence of cooperators providing a common good and defectors exploiting it has been assumed a priori. The tragedy of the commune, however, suggests an evolutionary mechanism for the emergence of distinct behavioral patterns with differing degrees of provisions to the common good. This mechanism may also apply to cultural evolution in human societies, in which large differences in cooperative contributions to communal enterprises could give rise to conflicts on the basis of accepted notions of fairness (Doebeli et al. 2004:862).

    Food sharing in human hunter-gatherers includes many asymmetries. For example, hunters differ greatly in their hunting returns and expenditure of effort. Yet good hunters tolerate the presence of poor hunters and share food with them. As with hunting but extended to both men and women, people invest greatly varying degrees of effort into gathering plant foods, with resulting variation in caloric returns. Some of the variation in investment and success is age-related, some is likely directly environmentally induced, and some may reflect frequency-dependent strategies.

    Over the next few days, I’ll be considering human hunting from the perspective of the Snowdrift game. I’ll start with some very simple deterministic models and then try to make them a bit more relevant by considering the effects of stochastic payoffs and asymmetries among players.

    Next: Defining the Snowdrift game for hunting

    References:

       Doebeli M, Hauert C, Killingback T. 2004. The evolutionary origin of cooperators and defectors. Science 306:859–862. doi:10.1126/science.1101456.

  • Richard Lewontin: "[T]oo rapid for genetic adaptation"

    Tue, 2009-05-26 22:56 -- John Hawks

    I have had a New York Review of Books essay by Richard Lewontin, titled, "Why Darwin?" on my desktop for a week without getting to the last section of it.

    Like many essays in the NY Review of Books, Lewontin's shoehorns small points from the books into an argument of his own. As you might guess from the title, Lewontin's theme is that Darwin has been overrated -- a result of biologists overemphasizing a "great man" story of the history of their science, and an unjustified belief in the ubiquity and power of natural selection. Lewontin mobilizes his argument against Jerry Coyne's Why Evolution Is True.

    I don't really find the "pluralist versus adaptationist" debate very interesting. Despite the vocal complaints of some, I can't ever seem to locate the mythical "adaptationists" who deny that non-adaptive evolution ever happens. So the "debate" always comes down to whether particular adaptive hypotheses are true. Since no scientific hypothesis is true a priori, and since "those adaptationists are always saying stupid things" is not a scientific argument, I don't see the point.

    Still, I meant to get to the last section of Lewontin's essay, and this morning I finally read it. To close his case for the weakness of natural selection, Lewontin turns to another new book by Greg Gibson, titled, It Takes a Genome: How a Clash Between Our Genes and Modern Life Is Making Us Sick. The book is an extended account of "diseases of civilization", a topic that I discussed here last week ("Arrested adaptation and the 'diseases of civilization'"). Here's a passage from the book's promotional material (on the Amazon page):

    In It Takes a Genome, Greg Gibson posits a revolutionary new hypothesis: Our genome is out of equilibrium, both with itself and its environment. Simply put, our genes aren’t coping well with modern culture. Our bodies were never designed to subsist on fat and sugary foods; our immune systems weren’t designed for today’s clean, bland environments; our minds weren’t designed to process hard-edged, artificial electronic inputs from dawn ‘til midnight. And that’s why so many of us suffer from chronic diseases that barely touched our ancestors.

    Set aside for a moment how "revolutionary" this hypothesis is -- I'll revisit the idea in another post. The question is whether this mismatch between our environments and our genetic variation means that human evolution "stopped" or that we are still "adapted to the Pleistocene". As I pointed out in my earlier post, both propositions are true: human populations are mismatched with their current environments, and human populations have been recently adapting very rapidly to new environments. Here's what I wrote last week:

    [M]any of today's chronic diseases reflect the reaction of human biology to novel environments for which our genes are not well adapted. But we don't need to exaggerate the slowness of human evolution to arrive at that conclusion. Recent rapid evolution of humans does not mean that humans are perfectly adapted to the present. Far from it -- if human populations have undergone rapid genetic changes into the past thousand years, it is a strong sign that fitness has not yet maximized in the post-agricultural environment.

    I can contrast my point of view with Richard Lewontin's, who perfectly reiterates the "human evolution stopped in the Pleistocene" version of events.

    An important property of adaptive evolution is that it is usually a slow process. Certainly there are cases where a single genetic change can mean the difference between life and death in a hostile environment. The classic cases are the mutations that give pathogenic microorganisms the ability to resist antibiotics or mutations that allow crops to resist pathogens, for example insects or herbicides. But these are not representative models for how species adapt, by accumulation of mutations of small effect, to changes in food availability, temperature modifications, and the thousand shocks that flesh is heir to. The usual small differences in fitness among genotypes are therefore manifest as detectable evolutionary change only after thousands of generations.

    This deliberate tempo has presented the human species with a problem of adaptation. With a human generation of about twenty-five years, there have been roughly only one hundred generations since the founding of the Roman Republic. Yet the changes in the human environment caused by changes in human activity have been enormous. Changes in diet, habitation, working conditions, the pollution of air and water, and especially the considerable increase of lifespan that result in major alterations and breakdowns in the bodily machinery have all been too rapid for genetic adaptation.

    Notice the false premises: Adaptive evolution is "usually a slow process." Species adapt by "accumulation of mutations of small effect." It's as if he were transported back in time to 1908 where no one had heard of the breeder's equation.

    There's nothing impossible about long series of small changes. But they are not the only mode of adaptation, or even the most likely one. Populations with additive genetic variation that correlates with fitness will change rapidly under selection. The structure of the additive variation may lead to strong selection on one gene of large effect, or selection in parallel across many genes of varying effects. Series of small changes may be required for some adaptations, but a rapid environmental change (as Lewontin observes for humans) may cause bursts of rapid changes in allele frequencies.

    To maintain the slowness of human evolution, Lewontin must do three things:

    1. Assume humans are genetically uniform.

    2. Where humans obviously are not uniform, argue that variations are uncorrelated with fitness.

    3. Ignore any historical or genetic evidence that might contradict 1 and 2.

    Keeping in mind the short length of this section of the essay, Lewontin does manage all three of these conditions.

    I think it's downright sneaky the way Lewontin reinforces the assumption of human genetic uniformity. He refers to "the human genotype" as if there were only one! By emphasizing that "parts of the human genome are out of correspondence with modern life", he precludes the possibility that some human genomes may be more in correspondence than others. Sure, if humans share a single genome, they can't possibly differ in any adaptive way.

    But diversity is the reality. Examples of recent human evolution are fixtures in biology textbooks, from sickle-cell to lactase persistence. These are traits that have rapidly changed in frequency during the last 2500 years, due to changes in recent human environments -- disease for the former, diet for the latter. These rapid transformations in precisely those that Lewontin says are impossible -- environmental changes being "too rapid for genetic adaptation." A number of morphological changes are also evident when comparing archaeological and recent skeletal samples in many parts of the world. Somehow the relevance of these recent changes goes unmentioned in the essay.

    One of the best-characterized examples of evolution in recent populations is the rapid Holocene evolution of pigmentation phenotypes. It's a textbook example of human variation, and several adaptive hypotheses may explain it. So pigmentation would seem an unlikely example of how human evolution has been too slow to cope with the environment. But Lewontin finds a way:

    [H]igh doses of solar radiation that is experienced by surfers on the California beaches might induce an eventually fatal skin cancer, but the cancer death almost always occurs well after reproductive age, so there is no opportunity for selection to act.

    I agree that current patterns of cancer mortality of light-skinned surfers may have little impact on their fitness. In other words, this chronic disease is a sign of an environmental "mismatch" that future genetic evolution is unlikely to erase.

    But why turn to false arguments about the speed of evolution to make this point? Surely Lewontin knows that "reproductive age" in humans is not synchronous with reproductive effort? Skin cancer is one of the earliest-killing cancers, with a good fraction of victims dying at ages when they might otherwise be helping raise their kids or grandchidlren. Lewontin must also know that human populations vary greatly in their skin cancer susceptibility, and that some surfers (the dark pigmented ones) have lower skin cancer rates after the same sun exposure. Skin cancer may or may not be the best explanation for dark pigmentation in low-latitude human populations (there are others, none mutually exclusive), but this example works strongly against Lewontin's claims that natural selection is "slow" and that human environmental changes have been "too rapid for genetic adaptation." We aren't perfectly adapted today, and the rate of our evolution in the recent past was very fast.

    References:

    Lewontin RC. 2009. Why Darwin? New York Review of Books 56(9) May 28, 2009. Online

  • Body size in Holocene southern Africa

    Mon, 2006-02-13 23:04 -- John Hawks

    I was just taking notes on this paper by Sealy and Pfeiffer (2000), and found some good quotes about body size in the Bushmen, both historically and in archaeological samples:

    Historical and ethnographic sources consistently indicate that Khoisan peoples were and continue to be petite. A group of early-20th-century San studied by Dart (1937a, b) had mean statures of 155.8 cm (males) and 146.1 cm (females). Decades later, the Harvard Kalahari study found mean statures of 160.9 cm (males) and 150 cm (females). These values are comparable to the fifth centile of adult stature for contemporary North Americans (Abraham 1979). Adult weights reported for the more recent individuals are 47.9 kg (males) and 40.1 kg (females) (Truswell and Hanson 1976).

    It has been claimed that environmental stressors, especially shortages of food, affected growth (Dornan 1975:80; Almeida 1965:6). The secular trend towards increasing stature among mid-20th-century Khoisan (Tobias 1978) could be seen as evidence for the influence of environmental factors.

    At the same time, there is a genetic component. Low stature persists even under apparently favourable health conditions. The small body size and lean physique of living Khoisan peoples are often cited in human population biology texts as exemplary of adaptation to a hot, sometimes specifically desert, climate. Their low body-mass index is portrayed as support for Bergmann's and Allen's rules (cf. Molnar 1998, Relethford 1997). Through study of archaeologically derived materials, these hypotheses can be explored.

    That's on the historic record. They examine a number of skeletons from archaeological sites and report this:

    Dimensions of selected bones from the southern Cape sample are summarized in table 2. Data from one exceptionally small skeleton (UCT 345, probably a dwarf) and the three most recent skeletons with anomalous isotope values (Sealy 1997) are not included in the summary statistics for body size. The mean stature calculated from 20 male femora is 157.8 cm (s.d. = 7.9). Twenty-three female femora have a mean estimated stature of 146.9 cm (s.d. = 10.5). Greater variability among females results from some very small individuals between 4,000 and 2,000 B.P. (see fig. 4). Body size, represented by femoral head diameter to maximize sample size and divided into five sex categories, is plotted against radiocarbon date in figure 5. This figure illustrates that the smallest individuals (femora

    That's 4'10'' for females; 5'2'' for males in the archaeological sample. Bi-iliac diameter for males was 214.6 ± 16.8, for females 209.0 ± 12.3.

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