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Ken Elstein's avatar

I think most of us have a real difficulty appreciating the possibile events that humans can experience over 100,000 years. For any population, there were abundant chances of "perfect storms" of climate change, conflict with other populations, and -- indeed -- perfect storms. Even very rare events can occur many times over several hundred thousand years.

Both American continents were populated in less than 20,000 years. The Pacific islands were populated in much less time. There would have been many failures in trial-and-error that do not leave any traces.

This is a long way to say that the actual story is much more complicated than was described a few decades ago. Time and space were both very big, with lots of possibilities.

On the other hand, it also is difficult to understand why there were so few technological changes in the physical record over the millennia. Of course, we know little about wooden and fabric technology, and of the people who were not living in caves.

We look forward to the ongoing research and the rich complexity of our ancestors.

Kirill Pankratov's avatar

I've read the Reich's preprint and this post again, and it is an interesting indirect exchange of views.

Reich contrasts his model with the idea of a "single episode" of encounter between early HS and N some 300 Kya, and I think he is spot on here - it was likely a long and gradual introgression of HS genes into early N territory. He is puzzled by the fact (as he mentioned many times) of a complete replacement of N mtDNA and Y-DNA by early HS but only modest autosomal input, and I think his simulation model hadn't fully answered that - the actual data is reproduced in the model only with an (unrealistically) strong survival advantage of HS mtDNA relative to N mtDNA. Otherwise there would be much more of HS autosomal admixture into N that would accompany the sweep.

Your view on the matter is that a sweep by uniparental lines can happen at a lower level of admixture and relatively fast. I think it is a valid point and it is known that uniparental time depth is much lower than the whole genomic one. Yet it is not clear if a sweep of both uniparental lines can occur at such a small level of autosomal admixture. Maybe we underestimate the level of admixture from early HS into N.

What I strongly agree with Reich is the idea of the connection of the spread of Levallois technology and other MP innovations with the demographic expansion of some early HS population (during MIS 11-9 time frame) that produced genetic connections both with N and some African archaics (and the ideas of "80-20 stems"). I don't think the lack of HS admixture in contemporary Denisovans that also used Levallois tools disprove it - they could get it from N later.

I actually expressed fairly similar ideas (though without a simulation model) in my post

https://kirillpankratov.substack.com/p/two-million-years-of-human-history

I think this period 400-250 Kya represents a critical juncture in human prehistory and our understanding of what happened will change in a major way.

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